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Frequently
Asked Questions
1. Is
Tampa big enough (or dense enough) for rail?
2. Will fixed-guideway transit service work here with our suburban pattern of development?
3. Wouldn’t
it be cheaper to build more/wider roads?
4. What are the best locations for rail
in our county?
5. How many riders and at what cost?
6. Why would we look at a new funding
source?
7. What would the proposed 1% sales
tax be used for?
8. What would it cost me personally?
9. Will an increased tax rate will make
our county a less attractive place to live?
10. Could investing in transit help our
economy?
11. Is transit a vital public service?
12. How would investing in transit benefit me personally?
13. How much would
the 1% sales tax cost the average household in Hillsborough County?
14. How do we know where future growth
will be?
15. Have other cities that have invested
in transit experienced growth you can measure?
Answers
1. Is Tampa big enough (or dense enough) for rail?
Tampa is the heart of a major metropolitan economic region. The multi-county
Tampa Bay region is the 19th largest metropolitan area in the country, by population,
and the 13th largest television market.
Of the 25 largest metropolitan ares in the country, only Tampa Bay and Detroit lack rail or rail projects.
Tampa Bay’s economic center is Hillsborough County. More
people commute into Hillsborough from surrounding counties than commute out. Eleven percent of Pinellas County workers and 24% of Pasco County workers come
to jobs in Hillsborough. (Figure 1)
In fact, the number of people inside the City of Tampa grows
by half during the workday due to people commuting in.
In 2035, 20% or more of Hillsborough County jobs are forecast to be filled
by residents of nearby counties, even
taking into consideration the commercial growth that is forecast for adjacent
counties.
The amount of traffic in Hillsborough County, measured in vehicle
miles traveled every day, is more than twice that of any nearby county. (Figure
2)

Other “sunbelt” metropolitan areas have center cities with a population
density similar to the City of Tampa. Many of these other metropolitan areas
have already invested in rail transit to serve their central areas, or have
plans well underway. (Table 1)


– Back to List of Questions –
2. Will fixed-guideway transit service work here with our suburban pattern of development?
While that pattern of development was more prevalent in the 1990’s, Tampa is part of a trend, nationwide, where substantial reinvestment and redevelopment is occurring in central cities. This trend, described in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) 2010 report “Residential Construction Trends in America’s Metropolitan Regions”, shows that redevelopment continues in many urban neighborhoods despite the slow economy.
Compared to the early 1990’s, the share of construction in urban neighborhoods was up 28 percent in mid-sized metropolitan regions that have promoted development around transit. For example, Denver, Colorado’s building permits accounted for 32 percent of its region, up from 5 percent in the 1990’s. Sacramento, California accounted for 27 percent of its region, up 9 percent.
The trend is even more significant in the largest metropolitan regions where for example, New York City accounted for 63 percent of the building permits in its metropolitan area, up from only 15 percent in the early 90’s. Chicago is up to 45 percent of the building permits in its region from just 7 percent in the 1990’s.
Tampa is up to 18 percent of the permits issued in the region as opposed to 12 percent in the early 1990’s. The percentage of redevelopment in existing urban areas of our community would very likely rise to levels comparable with other sun belt cities that have added light rail if Hillsborough County were to construct such a system, reducing further the trend toward urban sprawl.
The St. Petersburg Times reported that a shift has occurred regarding where people from outside of Florida come from when relocating to Tampa Bay. The old mantra was Midwesterners came down Interstate-75 from Michigan, Ohio and neighboring states to the Tampa Bay region seeking Midwest housing styles and some open space around them. That is no longer the case. Of the 10 counties outside of Florida that most feed Tampa Bay’s population these days, eight are from the region encompassing New York south to Washington, D.C. Only two Midwestern counties, giant Cook County which includes Chicago, and Wayne County, which includes Detroit are included among our top 10 feeder counties. This means more people are now moving to the Tampa Bay region who are accustomed to higher density housing and mass transit.
– Back to List of Questions –
3. Wouldn’t it be cheaper to build more / wider roads?
In many parts of our county, yes. But in the central, most congested, most
heavily developed areas, widening roads is very expensive and has significant
impacts.
As an example, a circa-1990 master plan for the Interstate Highways
in Tampa called for widening through the center of Tampa, some of which
has now been completed. Just the portion of I-275 north of Downtown is now
estimated to cost $2.2
Billion or more,5 to create a
total cross-section up to 12 lanes wide. If these lanes were built, I-275
traffic congestion would still be more than 28%
over capacity6 in
2035, needing perhaps 16 lanes rather than just 12.
By contrast, the cost to build a rail line in the same corridor,
heading north from Downtown Tampa to the University of South Florida and adjacent
medical complexes, is currently estimated at $0.9 Billion.7 This is less than half the cost for a transportation facility which can carry the same or more people.
Unlike a highway, which often requires the expensive and time-consuming
process of buying land to add lanes, capacity can be easily added to a rail
line by running service more often and/or buying vehicles. If you only
need to carry two lanes' worth of traffic, adding lanes is cost-effective.
But, if you need to carry eight lanes' worth of traffic, rail is cost effective.
;

Even if funds were available to build all the road lanes that are needed, traffic congestion would still be a significant problem. In many cases, roads cannot be widened further because it would destroy neighborhoods, business districts or parks. We are reaching the limit of our ability to address traffic congestion with road construction.


4. What Are the Best Locations for Rail in Our County?
In Hillsborough County, four major activity centers have a concentration of:
(Figure 5)
- 20% of the county’s population,
and
- 43% of the county’s jobs,
in…
- only 8% of the county’s
land area.

Connections between these centers have high demand for transportation.
- The Westshore Alliance estimates almost 100,000 jobs in its business district.
- The Tampa Downtown Partnership estimates 50,000 jobs
in its business district, which does not include Tampa General Hospital
(6,000 jobs), the University of Tampa (6,000 students), or the commercial
and industrial areas of Ybor City.
- The University of South Florida serves 46,000 students. It also employs
13,000 people, and the adjacent hospitals employ another 12,000 people.
- Tampa International Airport serves 18 million passengers
each year, or about 30,000 passengers a day.


Some of our most congested roads serve these major centers.
All of the following major roads are in the top 25 most congested
roads in Hillsborough County, measured in vehicle hours of delay
per mile.
Downtown to Westshore
- I-275 from the Howard Frankland Bridge to Downtown and northward
- Kennedy Boulevard
- SR 60
To Brandon
- I-4 from Downtown eastward past I-75
- SR 60/Adamo Drive
To USF Area
- Both I-275 and I-75
- Fowler Ave
- Bruce B. Downs Boulevard

– Back to List of Questions –
5. How many riders and at what cost?
Variations of rail systems connecting these centers have been tested
for potential ridership using the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Model,
which uses future population and job locations to forecast traffic
congestion.
A 25-mile, “U” shaped
rail line connecting the USF area, Downtown Tampa, and Westshore
Business District to Tampa International Airport and southern Carrollwood
could have 24 thousand riders on a typical weekday in 2035 (approximately
980 daily boardings per mile).8
For comparison, Phoenix’s East Valley LRT was forecast at approximately
1300 riders per mile on a typical weekday, and Charlotte’s Blue
Line LRT at 950. Both of these rail corridors are located in areas
of similar density to Tampa, and both have surpassed
their ridership forecasts.9 In
fact, Phoenix averaged about 2100 riders per mile on weekdays in October
2009, an increase of 57% above the initial forecast.10
Based on the forecast for Tampa Bay ridership,
the cost to build the “U” shaped
rail line equates to about $7.50 per weekday trip over
40 years. (In this calculation, there is no cost
for weekend trips.)
By contrast, the 2009 rate for trips provided by the Hillsborough
County Sunshine Line paratransit service is $21 per trip. An
expanded transit system could reduce reliance on the expensive door-to-door
paratransit provided to seniors and persons with disabilities who cannot
access local bus service to reach essential medical appointments.
If the “U” shaped rail line were constructed
in Hillsborough County, with an expanded bus network connecting to
it, the total amount of traffic congestion in the county is forecast
to be 5-6% lower in 2035. The actual number of reduced hours spent
in traffic congestion is equivalent to saving a quarter of a million people 15 minutes every
day.11
6. Why would we consider a new
funding source?
Funding for transportation improvements comes from federal, state,
and local sources, and in some cases from public-private partnerships.
In an analysis of all the road widenings, bus facilities,
rail lines (including the corridors described above), sidewalks and
trails, advanced traffic management systems, and other transportation
facilities that are needed to achieve goals such as less traffic and
fewer crashes, there is a significant gap between costs and available
funding, as illustrated in Figure 6.12 Costs are upwards
of $30 billion, and existing funding sources are less than $10 billion.

According to a 2008 study by the Center for Urban Transportation
Research, funding shortfalls for transportation are prevalent around
the state of Florida, and have been growing. Shortfalls were highest
in areas with:
- Rapid growth
- Reliance on state & federal (rather than
local) funding sources.
A proposed 1% local-option sales tax, which must
be approved by voters in a popular referendum could generate an
additional $7 billion, and potentially attract $3-4 billion in
new federal and state grants. These new sources could play a big
role in helping to meet our community's needs. (Figure 8)

7. What would the proposed 1% sales tax
be used for?
The 1% sales tax that is proposed to support transit is only
partially dedicated to rail. It is also planned to supplement county and city
funds for major roads, and to support an expansion of the bus system that will
tie into the rail lines and connect to neighborhoods and outlying areas. The
new sales tax funding would be divided with 25% to non-transit facilities,
and the remainder split between rail and bus services.13 (Figure
9)

The expansion of the bus system will provide service to 66%,
and frequent
service to 55% of Hills-borough’s residents & jobs. Today
only 13% of residents & jobs have frequent service.14 (Figure
10)

Having a new local source of funding for transportation has the potential to
attract other funds for which the county was not previously eligible. Both
the federal government and the State of Florida offer matching grant programs
to assist with major transit facilities (called “New Starts” programs).
Because Hillsborough County has not been able to access these funds in the
past, federal gas taxes collected in this county have paid for rail projects
in other states, such as Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and Charlotte.
On average, the State of Florida gets back only:
- 86 cents on every $1 of federal gas
tax paid in highway project funding
- 63 cents on every $1 of federal gas
tax paid in transit project funding.15
8. What would it cost me personally?
Revenues from a 1% sales tax in Hillsborough County are estimated at $173,777,183
per year by the Florida Legislative Committee on Intergovernmental
Relations (www.floridalcir.gov).
Sales taxes are paid by residents, commuters who reside in other counties,
tourists, and businesses.
The tax on items worth more than $5000 is capped. In other
words, the maximum amount of tax is $50 on the purchase
of any single item, such as a car or boat (assuming a 1% sales
tax).16
A calculation based on 2008 IRS tax tables of the amount
of sales tax paid by average income households in Hillsborough County (please see
Question 13
below) suggests:
- the average family household would pay $142 per year
- the average solitary householder would pay $85 per year
9. Will an increased tax rate will make our county
a less attractive place to live?
By comparison, a number of other metro areas already have sales tax rates
as high or higher, and some have a state income tax in place as well.
Two of our neighboring counties are considering sales tax increases similar
to Hillsborough. Both of those counties have implemented local-option gas
taxes at the same rate as Hillsborough, and neither is assuming in its
Long Range Transportation that those gas taxes will expire, as Hillsborough
is.
Sales Tax Rates, Various Sunbelt Cities - September 2009
| City |
Total Rate |
State Income Tax? |
| Sacramento |
8.75% |
Yes |
| San Diego |
8.75% |
Yes |
| Phoenix/ Maricopa County |
8.3% |
Yes |
| Charlotte-Mecklenburg* |
8.25% |
Yes |
| Dallas |
8.25% |
No |
| Houston |
8.25% |
No |
| Atlanta |
8% |
Yes |
| Tampa Bay/Hillsborough Co. |
7% today, considering future 1% increase |
| Tampa Bay/Pasco County |
7% today, considering future 1% increase |
| Tampa Bay/Pinellas County |
7% today, considering future 1% increase |
| Tampa Bay/Polk County |
7% today, considering future 1/2% increase |
| Salt Lake City |
6.85% |
Yes |
Local-Option Gas Tax Rates, Florida Counties – August 2009
| Sarasota County |
12¢/gal |
| Miami-Dade |
10¢/gal |
| Pinellas County |
7¢/gal |
| Pasco County |
7¢/gal |
| Hillsborough County |
7¢/gal – scheduled to expire by 2013 |
10. Could investing in transit help our economy?
Studies that have been conducted in other metropolitan areas17 have
the following results to report:
- Home values are up 4-17% near rail.
Philadelphia, Miami-Dade, Southern New Jersey, Portland, San
Diego
- Commercial values are up 10-30% near rail.
San Diego, San Francisco, Dallas
- Every $1 billion invested in public transit supports an
average of 36,000 jobs.*

Better mobility helps businesses. The value of business-related
travel time savings in Hillsborough County is estimated at $36 million
every year if the the proposed 1% sales tax is implemented.**
11. Is transit a vital public service?
Cities or entire regions were faced with this dilemma and in many cases began to subsidize and then acquire private transit operations. Implicitly the answer was yes. Much debated reasons are given: save energy; reduce pollution; provide mobility - especially for lower income, employment, elderly, etc.; improve quality of life – e.g., commute times, sprawl; public safety; and support economic development (attract private investment). Some smaller cities tried going without public transit and found themselves demonstrating through social service costs and business losses that all of the debated reasons are valid concerns.
– Back
to List of Questions –
12. How would investing in transit benefit me personally?
As noted above, today only 13% of Hillsborough County residents & jobs
have access to frequent transit service.18
Nationally, households near public transit drive an average of 4,400
fewer miles than households with no access to public transit.19
For some households, this makes it possible to own one less car.
According to AAA, the cost of owning, operating and maintaining a vehicle is roughly $8,000 per year for a mid-sized sedan. If there is an additional cost for parking, the cost goes up to over $9,000 per year.
In the Tampa Bay metro area, working families spend an
average of $10,600 per year, or 33% of household income on transportation – making
it one of the most expensive areas to live and drive in the nation.20

13. How much would the 1 %
sales tax cost the average household in Hillsborough County?
Family Households
- Comprise 64% of the households in Hillsborough County
- Average family size: 3.1 persons
- 50th-percentile household income: $58,700
- Half of the county’s families have higher income than this,
half have lower income. Also known as median income.
- Average household income: $77,852
- Income amounts for families in Hillsborough County have this
midpoint. Also known as mean income.
Sales Taxes Paid in 2008:
- Family with 50th-percentile income: $119
on each 1% sales tax
For household income $50,000-$60,000, claiming three federal income
tax exemptions.
- Family with average income: $142
on each 1% sales tax
For household income $70,000-$80,000, claiming three federal income
tax exemptions.
- Larger family with 50th-percentile income: $132
on each 1% sales tax
For household income $50,000-$60,000, claiming five federal income
tax exemptions.
- Larger family with average income: $158
on each 1% sales tax
For household income $70,000-$80,000, claiming five federal income
tax exemptions.
Non-Family Households
- Comprise 36% of the households in Hillsborough County
- Most are householders living alone (these comprise 29% of the households
in Hillsborough County).
- 50th-percentile household income: $32,921
- Half of the county’s non-family households have higher
income than this, half have lower income. Also known as median
income.
- Average household income: $44,832
- Income amounts for non-family households in Hillsborough County
have this midpoint. Also known as mean income.
Sales Taxes Paid in 2008:
- Solitary householder, 50th-percentile income: $73
on each 1% sales tax
For household income $30,000-$40,000, claiming one federal income tax
exemption.
- Solitary householder, average income: $85
on each 1% sales tax
For household income $40,000-$50,000, claiming one federal income tax
exemption.
14. How do we know where future
growth will be?
The location and intensity of growth is shaped by public policy as well
as by market forces.
- The Urban Services Area boundary has been effective, with 87% of growth
occurring inside it during 1995-2004. (Hillsborough County Comprehensive
Plan Evaluation and Appraisal Report)
Our population and job growth forecasts make that assumption.
- Our growth forecast assumes that 90% of new jobs and households will
locate inside the Urban Services Area.
- Our old forecasting method assumed growth would occur primarily on vacant
parcels of five acres or more. By this method, Manhattan would have been
considered completely built out in the 1880s.
- Our new method still focuses on vacant parcels, but assumes some infill
and redevelopment will occur as well. Under the old method, the population
of the unincorporated county (which has the majority of large vacant
parcels) would grow 60% by 2025; under the new method it is forecast
to grow 53%. As a point of reference, actual growth in the unincorporated
county was 46% during 1990-2005.
The future will not be entirely like the past. Urban infill and redevelopment
is already playing a greater role.
- In the greater Downtown Tampa area, population increased by 120% (more
than doubled) between 2000 and 2009. This trend was not foreseen in
growth projections prepared five years ago.
- Development in the greater Downtown Tampa area worth $1B was completed
just during 2006-2008. The many new units are currently being absorbed,
with commercial vacancy at about 20%. (Downtown Tampa Quick Facts
October-December 2009, Tampa Downtown Partnership)
- In the greater Westshore Business District area, a real estate market
study estimates that if rail is built, demand for residential
units would be 50% higher, and demand for employment space 43% higher,
than currently assumed in the MPO’s growth forecast. (Hillsborough
County Transit Oriented Development Study, Market Assessment & Development
Potentials, Hillsborough MPO)
A modest shift in growth trends, to include more urban infill and redevelopment
in the future, would have benefits.
- Under a “business-as-usual” growth scenario, the amount
of land consumed by growth in Tampa Bay could nearly double by 2050.
Under other scenarios that include some infill and redevelopment,
the same number of jobs and households could fit in a more compact
space, with benefits such as:
- Relieving traffic – with shorter trips and more options to get
around, reducing vehicle miles by 25%
- Preserving natural areas – protecting 67% more open space, 75%
more wetlands, and 80% more wildlife habitat
- In Emerging Trends in Real Estate-2010, the Urban Land Institute reports that next-generation projects will orient to infill, urbanizing suburbs, and transit-oriented development. Smaller housing units-close to mass transit, work and 24-hour amenities-gain favor over large houses on big lots at the suburban edge.
(One Bay Scenario Guide, www.myonebay.org)
15. Have other cities
that have invested in transit experienced growth you can measure?
Transit Stimulates Private Investment
Every $1 billion invested in public transportation infrastructure
supports approximately 47,500 jobs, proving that transit continues
to be an economic engine and job creator.
- Dallas -- The total value of real estate projects
attributable to the presence of a DART Rail station rose $4.26
billion over an eight year period.1
- Dallas -- As of 2007, development projects located within the Dallas
Area Rapid Transit Service Area are projected to increase state and
local tax revenues in excess of $127 million.1
- Portland -- A $57 million streetcar has generated almost $3
billion in development along the corridor since it opened
in 2001.2
- Evanston, IL -- Areas near transit zones have seen the number of businesses
increase by 27% from 1997-2005 while between 2000-03 annual retail
sales grew by 11.2% or $17.1 million.3
- Evanston, IL -- Between 1990-2005, Evanston added more than 2,472 housing
units • in transit zones. Population increased by 6% along
the transit corridors compared to just 1.4% for the remainder
of the city.4
Transit Increases Real Estate Value
Home Value
- Southern New Jersey -- Growth along the Hudson/Bergen
railline has generated 10,000+ new housing units conservatively estimated
at $5.3 billion.5
- Southern Philadelphia -- There has been a 3.8% premium for
median home prices in census tracts served by the rail line.6
- Portland Oregon -- There exists a 10.6% premium for homes within
500 meters of stations.
- Dade County -- Up to 5% higher rate of appreciation in
real estate sales value compared to the rest of the City of Miami.
Commercial Property Value
- San Francisco Bay Area -- 10-15% rent premium for
rental units within 1/4 mile of BART.7
Dallas Area Rapid Transit -- 30% premium for retail uses;
25% higher property value than similar real estate elsewhere in area.
8
- San Diego -- Premiums of 91% were found for commercial
properties near commuter rail stations.8
- Washington, D.C. -- Every 1,000 ft closer to rail stations raises
the value of commercial property $2.30/sq.ft, or a total of
$70,139 on average per a 30,000 sq.ft. building. 8
Transit Has a Positive Impact on the Economy
Economic Activity means:
- Better access to jobs;
- Less wasted time due to congestion;
- Increased productivity;
- Spin-off increases in activity through suppliers and services.
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- Los Angeles -- $15.0 billion in construction for public transit, transportation
projects will generate $32.1 billion over a 30 year period and more
than 210,000 annual full-time equivalent jobs in Los Angeles County.8
- Charlotte -- Has competed with Atlanta, a metropolis three times its
size, and won major employers such as GMAC Financial Services, in part
because of its investment in light rail.9
- Chicago -- The transit system is estimated to directly and indirectly
provide over $12 billion in economic benefits and
120,000 jobs.10
- Dallas -- Transit has led to $3.7 billion in economic activity and
created 32,000 new jobs.1
- Columbus, OH -- In 2002, the city raised $800 million in city, county,
state and federal funds for infrastructure improvements helping to
attract $1.5 billion in private investment.11
- Santa Clara, CA -- Being within walking distance of an LRT station
in Santa Clara County increased land values on average by over $4,
or by around 23 percent in relation to the mean per square-foot value
of sampled commercial parcels of $17.51.12
For every $1 invested in public transportation, $6 is generated in
economic returns.13
PUBLIC TRANSIT & ECONOMIC GROWTH: OTHER CITIES’ EXPERIENCE:
END NOTES
1 Clower, Terry, Bernard Weinstein and Michael Seman. Assessment of
the Potential Fiscal Impacts of Existing and Proposed Transit-Oriented
Development in the Dallas Area Rapid Transit Service Area. Denton,
TX: Center for Economic Development and Research, University of North
Texas, 2007.
2 Portland, Oregon. Office of Transportation and Portland Streetcar,
Inc. Portland Streetcar Development Oriented Transit. Portland Oregon,
2006.
3 Gorewitz, Cali and Gloria Ohland. “Communicating the Benefits
of TOD: The City of Evanston’s Transit-Oriented Redevelopment
and the Hudson Bergen Light Rail Transit System.” Reconnecting
America: Center for Transit Oriented Development. 6 July 2009.http://www.reconnectingamerica.org/public/display_asset/bestpractice159?docid=154
4 Zimmerman, Maria. “Northstar as a Catalyst for Strengthening
Livable Communities.” Reconnecting America: Center for Transit
Oriented Development. PowerPoint. 7 July 2009. http://www.reconnectingamerica.org/public/display_asset/northstarppt
5 Wells, Jan S. and Martin Robins. Development Impact of the Hudson-Bergen
Light Rail Transit System. New Brunswick, NJ: Alan M. Voorhees Transportation
Center, Rutgers University, 2006.
6 Diaz, Roderick B. “Impact of Rail Transit on Property Values.” APTA
1999 Rapid Transit Conference Proceedings Paper. (1999) 6. July
2009. http://www.apta.com/research/info/briefings/documents/diaz.pdf
7 Zimbabwe, Sam. “Transit Oriented Development: Factors and
Elements of Success.” Reconnecting America: Center for Transit
Oriented Development. 4 Sept. 2008. 6 July 2009 http://www.reconnectingamerica.org/public/display_asset/flapa01sz
8 Freeman, Gregory and Myasnik Poghosyan. Construction Impact of LA
Metro’s Proposed Transportation Projects, 2009-2039. Los Angeles,
CA: Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation, 2008.
9 Chapman, Dan. “Rivalry to be Economic King of the South Heats
Up.” Atlanta Journal Constitution. 10 May, 2009.
10 Mass Transit Capital Funding: The Need to Maintain, Enhance, and
Expand. Chicago, IL: Regional Transportation Authority, 2008.
11 Cortese, Amy. “New Rail Lines Spur Urban Revival.” New
York Times. 13 June 2009.
12 Cervero, Robert and Michael Duncan. “Transit’s Value-Added:
Effects of Light and Commuter Rail Services on Commercial Land Values.” Transportation
Research Record. V. 1805 (2002).
13 Public Transportation Gets Our Economy Moving. Washington, DC:
American Public Transportation Association, 2009. 7 July 2009. http://www.publictransportation.org/fac
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